Why Delivery Isn't Optional for Grocers: How Today's Strategy Determines Tomorrow's Market Position
The most important thing happening in grocery right now isn’t what’s on the shelves at the stores. It’s how fast, accurately, and profitably that shelf can show up at someone’s door.
This is part one of a four-part series on grocery delivery infrastructure. Part two will cover the cost of outsourcing, part three will look at how to build scalable infrastructure, and part four will show how AI can amplify what grocers already own.
Delivery is grocery’s biggest growth driver in 2025
The most important thing happening in grocery right now isn’t what’s on the shelves at the stores. It’s how fast, accurately, and profitably that shelf can show up at someone’s door.
The center of gravity in grocery is shifting toward delivery-led experiences. Shoppers aren’t waiting around for their next weekly trip. They’re ordering online, setting delivery preferences, joining membership programs, and choosing grocers that make shopping faster and easier.
National players like Walmart and Amazon have set a new standard. Their delivery programs now reach nearly every U.S. household, backed by infrastructure that gives them total control over fulfillment, customer data, and loyalty. They’re also reshaping consumer expectations.
Meanwhile, many regional grocers are still weighing whether delivery is worth the investment. But as they hesitate, the gap keeps growing. And so does the risk of losing relevance.
The good news: there’s now a better option. The right infrastructure and orchestration empowers all grocers to take back control of delivery—without taking on the full cost and complexity of managing their own fleets. These tools can cut delivery costs in half and open new revenue streams by restoring access to data, improving customer loyalty, and even powering digital ad networks.
This post lays out what’s at stake, and what’s next.
In this first blog, we’ll cover:
- How delivery is becoming the primary customer touchpoint in grocery
- The business impact of owning the delivery experience—from data to loyalty
- The four stages of delivery maturity and why time in each one matters
- Why infrastructure and orchestration are now essential for long-term growth
If your team is still treating delivery as a side channel, now is the time to shift. The longer you wait, the harder it becomes to catch up.
Grocery delivery drives growth and builds loyalty
Delivery is the most important growth engine in grocery today. While in-store growth plateaus, delivery is accelerating, and it’s reshaping how customers engage with grocery brands.
While overall grocery sales have slowed, delivery continues to scale rapidly:
- Grocery sales grew just 3% year-over-year in May 2025. But delivery grew 70% in the same time period, reaching $3.9 billion.
- Delivery now accounts for 45.4% of all eGrocery sales, up 13 percentage points from the year before.
Big players are capitalizing on this shift. Walmart reaches more than 95% of U.S. households with sub-three-hour delivery windows. Amazon is investing $4 billion to expand same-day service into 4,000 rural towns, setting a new standard for speed, reach, and consistency. These companies have built delivery into the core of their growth and loyalty strategies.
The message to regional grocers is clear: delivery is where customers are. When the experience is smooth, fast, and reliable—shoppers return.
It creates a flywheel effect. Which means that delivery drives modern grocery growth. It increases retention, improves customer value, and keeps shoppers coming back which increases revenue.
For many shoppers, delivery is the first (and most frequent) way they interact with a grocery brand. If the experience is clunky, delayed, or branded by someone else, that impression sticks. And in a crowded market, it can be the reason a customer leaves.
Grocers: It’s time to decide whether to own your delivery experience
Until recently, grocers faced a tough tradeoff: either hand over the customer relationship to third-party platforms or take on the full cost and complexity of managing delivery themselves.
That landscape has changed.
Delivery is no longer just a service channel, but your storefront. Online grocery now accounts for 8% to 10% of total grocery sales—and delivery is growing even faster than that. For many customers, it's the first (and most frequent) way they engage with your brand. If the experience is outsourced, clunky, or off-brand, that impression sticks.
So what should grocers consider?
- Do I want to control the relationship with my customers, and the ability to market to them directly? That includes ad dollars, loyalty programs, and repeat traffic to your own site.
- Can I support ordering and fulfillment through my own systems? Think web and app interfaces, plus in-store picking.
- How do I offer delivery without high costs or operational burden?
This is where orchestration comes in.
Modern orchestration platforms simplify delivery without forcing you to build a fleet. They help grocers route orders, choose providers, and keep the experience consistent. That control protects profit margin and unlocks long-term value: first-party data, repeat business, and new digital revenue.
Because once delivery is under control, it opens the door to much more:
- Build a branded online ordering experience
- Reclaim customer communications
- Lay the groundwork for a retail media business
Grocers who start here gain flexibility, speed, and control. And most importantly—they keep the customer.
Owning delivery drives loyalty
In May 2025, delivery accounted for 45.4% of all eGrocery sales—up 13 percentage points year over year. The number of monthly active users for delivery grew three times faster than the overall eGrocery market. Meanwhile, pickup declined 3.6% in sales, even as more customers used the service.
Take Walmart, for example. Its online grocery monthly active user base is growing 1.5x faster than the market average, showing what’s possible when delivery is owned and orchestrated in-house.
Owning the delivery experience is a growth lever. It gives grocers a direct line to the customer, control over quality, and access to the data that drives loyalty and revenue. In a market where delivery is becoming the primary touchpoint, ownership is the path to long-term differentiation and growth.
Delivery maturity matters
Every grocer falls somewhere on the delivery maturity curve. These four stages represent a grocer’s mindset, infrastructure, risks, and rewards. The longer a business remains in the middle stages (two and three), the more inertia it builds. What starts as a short-term solution can become a long-term constraint.
Many grocers get stuck in stages two and three. These delivery models are easy to spin up, but hard to evolve. Five years can go by in a system that was only meant to be temporary. Over time, processes get locked in, customer data stays fragmented, and the gap widens.
The most advanced players (like Walmart) have the resources to build end-to-end infrastructure and move quickly. But that doesn’t mean regional grocers are out of the game. It means they need to start with scalable tools and workflows that can grow with them.
Here’s how the journey tends to unfold:
The takeaway: time in stage matters.
Grocers that begin building orchestration into their delivery operations early can evolve with the market. Those who linger in middle stages often find themselves boxed in by systems that can’t support long-term growth or loyalty.
You don’t need to go all-in on day one. But you do need to start with tools that give you more control, more visibility, and a clearer path to maturity. Stage four isn’t about matching the most advanced infrastructure—it’s about building smart, sustainable systems that move your business forward.
Where are you on the Delivery Curve? Take the assessment below.
Delivery is the growth strategy
Delivery is driving the biggest gains in grocery. It shapes how often customers return, how much they spend, and where their loyalty goes. It also powers high-margin growth through retail media and personalized digital promotions.
The numbers reflect this. Online grocery is projected to make up 20% of total U.S. grocery sales by 2026, nearly doubling from 2022. Retail media is expected to reach $74 billion by the same year. And 59% of shoppers now say delivery availability directly influences where they buy groceries.
The most recent numbers show just how fast this shift is accelerating: in May 2025, delivery sales hit $3.9 billion—a 70% year-over-year increase—driven by higher order frequency, stronger average basket sizes, and a rapidly expanding base of monthly active users.
Grocers who want to stay competitive aren’t waiting. They’re owning the experience, controlling the data, and scaling on their own terms.
Delivery is projected to surpass 50% of online grocery volume, growing five times faster than in-store through 2029. It’s already the primary way customers engage with grocery brands—and it’s driving growth, loyalty, and high-margin opportunities.
Grocers who take control now are building systems that grow with them, protect margins, and keep customers coming back. They’re investing in systems that grow with them, strengthening customer relationships, and protecting their margins.
Heading to Groceryshop? Attend our Innovation Session on Monday, September 29.
Join us for breakfast before the expo hall opens More speakers to be announced soon!